Basketball Betting – NBA Totals Home-Away Primer
Very few sports gamblers take into consideration that NBA teams often have different personalities when they’re playing at home, as opposed to playing on the road. A smart bettor will learn how teams perform in front of the home fans and how they do away from the friendly confines of their home arena. Some teams try to put on an offensive show when playing at home and concentrate on defense more during away games, while other teams will do the exact opposite. Some teams will play pretty much the same no matter which city they are in. Knowing the tendencies of each team can add a few dollars to your bankroll, especially when betting NBA totals.
Home and Away Differences
There were 16 NBA teams that showed an average difference of four or more total points between their home games and their away games in the 2006-07 season.
Using Detroit as an example, the Pistons outscored the opposition by an average score of 96-92 in all of their home games, for an average of 188 total points. When Detroit was on the road, the Pistons outscored the opposition by an average score of 94-89, for an average of 183 points. So there was a five point differential between Detroit’s home and away games.
What we are looking for are differences of four or more points between home and away performances and we will bet totals accordingly. In the case of the Pistons, we would look to bet over the total when the Pistons were playing at home and look to bet under when Detroit is on the road. The Pistons ended up going over in 26 of their 47 home games and under in 31 of their 47 away games last season (playoffs included).
The Pistons were a bit of an anomaly in their home and away over/under peformance on the season, but a person wagering accordingly on all 16 teams that met the four point difference criteria would have had a record of 720-621 or 53.7% winning wagers. This percentage could have been improved on slightly by shopping for the best lines and betting into those most favorable. While 53.7% won’t make a person wealthy, I certainly would not want to be wagering against those patterns.
Because NBA rosters change frequently, it is unwise to use last year’s statistics and you should wait until January 1 to start, as teams will then have played a number of home and away games and some trends will have began to emerge. The beauty of this system is its simplicity and the fact that it will point you towards the right team more often than not. While it should make you money in the long run, it’s best used as a supplement to your over/under handicapping process.